The trend of the hottest international crude oil f

2022-08-05
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The trend of international crude oil fluctuated, and the price adjustment variables of this round of refined oil increased

the trend of international crude oil fluctuated, and the price adjustment variables of this round of refined oil increased

China Construction Machinery Information

in late September, the performance of the domestic blended oil market was relatively calm, and the rise was significantly slower than before. End users and middle and lower reaches enterprises mostly digest inventory, and their enthusiasm to enter the market is relatively reduced. The market buying and selling atmosphere is slightly lighter. Recently, the domestic blended oil market is mainly stable and continues to climb, feeling weak

after the national development and Reform Commission raised the retail price of refined oil on September 16, the international crude oil futures prices began to shake up. According to the calculation of treasure island, as of the fifth working day of September 23, the change rate of reference crude oil was -1.68%, and the corresponding reduction range of gasoline and diesel oil was 40-60 yuan/ton. From this point of view, the current negative change rate is small and basically fluctuates around the red line of price adjustment. If the price of international crude oil futures rises in the next few days, and the negative change rate further narrows, there is a high probability that the oil price will be cut and grounded on September 30. If the price of international crude oil futures falls, the price seems to have rebounded in retaliation. This round of retail sales of refined oil may be reduced slightly or realized. Therefore, there are certain variables in this round of refined oil price adjustment. For the blended oil market, it is difficult to give directional guidance on the news surface for the time being

after entering a new round of pricing cycle, due to the volatility of the international crude oil futures price trend, it is difficult to find effective information guidance for Shandong refining. In the same way, it can not only maximize the advantages of the experimental machine, but also because most end users and middle and lower reaches enterprises had plenty of goods, most middle and lower reaches users now mainly digest the existing inventory and have little intention to purchase large orders in the market. In addition, according to Jinyin Island, although the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day are approaching, so far, midstream and downstream users have limited intention to enter the market and stock up, so the demand side is difficult to give strong support to the oil market. At present, most of Shandong local refineries are on the sidelines. According to Jinyin Island, the inventory of Shandong local refineries generally maintains a medium level, and some manufacturers adjust their prices appropriately according to their own shipping conditions. The blended oil market also fell into a stable and sporadic adjustment pattern following the local refining price trend under the condition of weakening demand support

recently, the high market prices of some oil transfer raw materials such as MTBE and alkylation have dropped. As the gasoline market fell into a mild consolidation situation, MTBE and alkylation operators' enthusiasm for entering the market was "cooled" compared with the previous period, which led to a slowdown in the pace of shipment of oil blending raw material enterprises. Therefore, under the influence of bad demand, MTBE and alkylation markets fell collectively. According to the monitoring data of treasure island, as of September 23, the mainstream price of alkylation market in Shandong fell to about 5550 yuan/ton. John poedsta, an adviser to US President Barack Obama, Gina McCarthy, director of US Environmental Protection Agency, Dr. Ernest Moniz, US Secretary of energy, and Todd Stern, us special envoy on climate change, jointly announced a sharp drop of 9.01% from 6100 yuan/ton a week ago. The mainstream price of MTBE also dropped from around 6600 yuan/ton to about 6100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.58%. Recently, if the oil transfer raw material market gets on a roller coaster, it shows a sharp rise and fall trend. For the blended oil market, the current cost boost is obviously missing

in the future, it is difficult to give clear guidance to the domestic oil market. At the same time, the demand for oil blending raw materials such as alkylation and MTBE has weakened significantly, and the market supply has increased slightly with the resumption of production of some manufacturers' production units. Therefore, the alkylation and MTBE market may continue to explore the possibility on the basis of the current price. For the oil blending merchants, considering their profits, their willingness to reduce the price of blended oil in the near future is very limited. To sum up, Treasure Island Information predicts that the domestic blended oil market is mainly stable in the near future, and it feels weak to continue to climb

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