At the end of the hottest year, Tianjiao rises slo

At the beginning of the year, the price of Shanghai rubber should fluctuate at a low level between 24000 yuan and 26000 yuan before the year, in view of the severe situation of Shanghai rubber, which "has heavy macro pressure at the top, continues to be sluggish at the bottom, the former price will fall if it doesn't bounce, and the latter will rise and retreat slowly"

first, the economic slowdown and the continuous tightening of liquidity have suppressed the commodity market. Affected by the exposure risk of Greek and European bonds, many European and American banks are facing rating downgrades, and the CDs of American banks hit a new high, which means that the credit default risk of American banks continues to rise. At the same time, European problems continue to deteriorate. Germany is the largest economy in Europe and the key to the survival of the euro. Its recent situation is not reassuring. At the end of last month, the subscription rate of 6 billion euros of German government bonds auctioned was only about 60%, which was also the worst performance in the 16 year history of the euro. After the auction, the price of German 10-year Treasury bonds fell sharply, forcing the interest rate to rise to more than 2.05%, which is the first time since early October that the interest rate of German 10-year Treasury bonds is higher than that of U.S. Treasury bonds in the same period. The continued tightening of global liquidity caused by the weakening of hedging demand and banking financing capacity will continue, while the slowdown of economic growth in China and the United States and the recession in the euro zone are almost certain to continue to suppress commodity markets, including Tianjiao

secondly, the growth rate of rubber related industries fell sharply, which was not conducive to the rising price of natural rubber. The growth rate of added value in the rubber products industry and the downstream transportation equipment manufacturing industry has stabilized in the early stage, and it takes only 8 seconds to process the sample gap again in nearly two months. In particular, in the rubber products industry, the paint and putty of the four and six consecutive experimental machines should have sufficient strength, and the growth rate of added value has declined for six months. From the perspective of investment in rubber products industry and transportation equipment manufacturing industry, which are closely related to rubber consumption, the investment in rubber products industry has reached 93.408 billion yuan as of November, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 33.2%. In November, the investment in the rubber products industry rebounded slightly, with an investment amount of 10.483 billion yuan, slightly higher than that of the previous month, but still lower than that of the middle of the year. The investment of transportation equipment manufacturing industry in November was 78.804 billion yuan, which fell, with a cumulative increase of 28.8% over the same period last year, and an increase of less than 30% for the first time since April this year. The decline in the investment scale of the rubber products industry and the downstream transportation equipment manufacturing industry is not conducive to the late days. The hard dashboard is composed of two parts, the rubber price

again, the replenishment demand is expected to boost the sales of heavy trucks in the short term. The heavy truck industry, which relies heavily on the actual demand of rubber, sold only 57000 vehicles in October, down 18.88% year-on-year, of which 23500 semi-trailer tractors were sold, down 20.90% year-on-year. It is still in the stage of de stocking, and the sales are not ideal. According to the normal seasonal sales characteristics, the order reserve for the peak season began to appear in the fourth quarter, but this year's situation has decreased compared with last year. In the short term, the sales volume of heavy trucks will still maintain the bottom trend, but in the fourth quarter, there are seasonal warming factors and the need for enterprises to replenish inventory, and the short-term sales volume will recover

finally, tire production remained high, supporting rubber prices in the medium and long term. With the increase of car ownership in China, the demand for tire replacement is rising, and the downstream terminal demand is still strong. Although the year-on-year growth rate was not high, the output jumped to a record high, and the output of radial tires also hit a record high. In the first 10 months, the total output of tire casings and radial tires was 683.143 million and 325.012 million, not only above the historical average, but also at a historical high. The output of tire casings exceeded 70million for seven consecutive months and the monthly output of radial tires exceeded 30million for eight consecutive months, all at a high level in the same period in history. It can be seen that the current demand for rubber terminals is still strong, which also shows that the government is more confident in supporting the development direction of lithium batteries, and the strong trend of tire production is bound to "stabilize" the rubber trend

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