At the end of the year, the photovoltaic industry

  • Detail

At the end of next year, the photovoltaic industry will start a new cycle

overcapacity, the "double anti-dumping" in Europe and the United States (anti-dumping, countervailing), and product prices have plummeted across the board. China's photovoltaic industry is in a deep winter, but the Minnesota based 3M company (nyse:mmm, hereinafter referred to as 3M) has said that it has heard the footsteps of the industry inflection point

3m global central executive committee and senior vice president of 3M China and Hong Kong Industrial Products Division xujiwei revealed in an exclusive interview with the Morning Post recently, "our photovoltaic customers, such as Jingao (Jingao solar), Hairun (Hairun Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd.) have been doing a lot of work recently, and the effective capacity has been fully developed. The balance point of supply and demand in the whole industry is slowly approaching."

as a diversified enterprise, 3M is one of the 30 Dow Jones industrial indexes, with sales of nearly $30billion in fiscal 2011 and production of more than 70000 products. The latest direction of 3m in China is the photovoltaic industry that is not favored by most people at present

on September 30, 2011, when the global photovoltaic industry was at a low point, 3M materials technology (Hefei) Co., Ltd., which 3M invested 1 billion yuan, broke ground. This is 3M's 11th production base in China, which is mainly engaged in photovoltaic module supporting products such as solar backplane. The base is scheduled to be completed and put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2013

"with the balance between supply and demand and the pull of photovoltaic installation in China and Japan, we expect that the photovoltaic industry will usher in a new cycle by the end of next year." Xu Jiwei said that counter cyclical expansion has not only reduced the expansion cost, but more importantly, when large-scale mass production, it may catch up with the recovery of the photovoltaic industry

according to reports, 3M has been involved in the photovoltaic industry since the 1970s and 1980s; In 2008, the global photovoltaic industry made great progress. 3M established a renewable energy department at that time, which mainly pointed to the huge differences in performance, cost, life and other aspects of composite components caused by too much solar energy

Oriental Morning Post: what is 3M's prediction of China's photovoltaic industry

Xu Jiwei: we predict that the average annual growth of photovoltaic applications in China in the future will be 20% to 30%, which is realistic. If China's GDP growth rate is about 7%, and the photovoltaic growth rate reaches three times the GDP growth rate, it can be expected

Oriental Morning Post: with the decline in profits of the entire photovoltaic industry, customers have pressed prices very hard. Do you feel this industry pressure

Xu Jiwei: in fact, when the industry was very hot in 2010, we expected that there might be a wave of adjustment, whether there was "double anti". In particular, our component customers have lost money for almost four or five consecutive quarters, and everyone is pushing down prices. I think it is necessary to reduce costs, but it is not the only way. The most important thing is to improve the efficiency of components. Our customers sell components in watts. Cost innovation should make the numerator (referring to the component price) smaller, but more importantly, the denominator (component wattage) larger. Thus, the cost per watt is reduced

Oriental Morning Post: in 2010, the global photovoltaic industry was booming, and the shipment volume doubled. In 2011, the photovoltaic industry turned cold sharply. By the third quarter, China's photovoltaic industry had encountered "double opposition" from the United States. Why did 3M choose to expand at this time

Xu Jiwei: there is a concept in Economics - the Lawrence curse effect, that is, when the economy is hot, everyone builds skyscrapers. After four or five years, the building is built, and the economy begins to decline. When the enterprise is built, the cost is almost the highest, because everyone is very hot

we are going against the current, and we are also moving forward at the trough. The whole construction cost is relatively low. After the factory is built, the boom cycle of the photovoltaic industry can return by the end of next year. However, the hot path of the return 1. The hydraulic universal testing machine has the symptoms of unstable rate, most of which are the sudden high or low pressure, which is not like 2010

Oriental Morning Post: how much does China's photovoltaic business account for 3M's photovoltaic business

Xu Jiwei: accounting for 60% of 3M's global photovoltaic business revenue. However, China has the largest PV production in the world, but the local installation volume is very small. We expect that the application potential of PV in China will be very large in the future

Oriental Morning Post: how to treat the "double anti" of the United States and Europe

Xu Jiwei: from a certain point of view, "double anti" has its positive significance. Because it makes the foam of oversupply burst in advance. If there is no double reflection, many problems in the industry will continue to ferment and will explode one day, but the consequences will be much more serious than now

After the "double reverse", two new catalysts appeared:

one is that many enterprises began to actively reduce production capacity due to market pressure, which was ineffective. These things were impossible for the government to do before the "double anti" movement, which was equivalent to going to the foam in advance

another catalyst is that the Chinese government has never seen such a great effort to promote the local application of photovoltaic before. In the past, the export situation was good. As long as the Chinese government provided land, electricity, human, material and financial resources at home, it did not need to create too many local markets, and the whole industry rose. Exports are of great importance to the local economy Employment rate: the cdw-196 ℃ impact test low-temperature tank of Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. is the latest liquid nitrogen refrigeration equipment developed by our company according to the requirements for ultra-low temperature devices in gb229-2007 "metallic materials Charpy Notch Impact Test Method". Why not

now the export is an obstacle for the origin of experimental machines, so the government has to increase investment in local applications. The "12th Five Year Plan" that has been announced is 21gw, and this figure may be increased. We estimate that it will reach 25gw in the next three years, and 10GW may be needed in one year. What is the concept of 25gw? It is the global installation volume last year. Previously in China, these were unimaginable

Oriental Morning Post: what do you think of overseas markets

Xu Jiwei: Japan will be a priority. 52 of Japan's 54 nuclear power plants have been shut down. Now the Japanese government and the public, including the public, want to abandon nuclear power, so they have made great efforts to promote the application of solar energy. For example, the Japanese government now maintains the purchase price of new solar power plants installed within about a year for 25 years, and Japan's demand is very large now. Therefore, China and Japan will account for 60% of the net growth of the entire photovoltaic market next year. It's true that there is a lot of demand in Europe now, but Europe's contribution to net growth is very small, less than 10%. Japan and China will dominate the net growth next year. Now you can see that Jingao, Hairun, Yingli group and Atlas (atlas sunshine Power Technology Co., Ltd.) have all opened up their effective capacity, and the relationship between supply and demand is slowly approaching. I don't mean it has reached 1:1, but it is indeed approaching

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI