The supply of the hottest parts is improved, and t

2022-07-26
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The supply of parts and components is improved, and the rush installation of wind power is expected to speed up.

subject to the epidemic in the first half of the year, the installed capacity of domestic wind power is slightly lower than expected. In the second half of the year, as the epidemic situation in the production area eased, the supply of relevant raw materials resumed, and the rush to install wind power based on the superposition policy is expected to accelerate, the recovery of relevant industries will be accelerated

in the first half of 2020, the installed capacity affected by the epidemic was slightly lower than expected

2020, China's new and installed capacity of wind power was 4.9gw, a year-on-year decrease of 28.78%, and the decline of wind power installed capacity was mainly affected by the epidemic

affected by the domestic epidemic in the first quarter, the domestic wind power production capacity was stopped in February and resumed in March. Therefore, the newly installed capacity of domestic wind power in the first quarter was only 2.36gw, a year-on-year decrease of 50.62%

the domestic epidemic improved in the second quarter, and the installed capacity recovered. In April and may, the installed capacity of domestic wind power totaled 2.54gw, an increase of 20.95% year-on-year

however, due to the impact of the epidemic in Ecuador and Italy, the supply of raw materials such as balsa wood and PVC upstream of the leaves is in short supply. The tight supply of leaves has limited the installed capacity of fans in the second quarter to a certain extent, and the demand for rush installation has not yet been fully released

the relief of the epidemic in the second half of the year will improve the supply of parts and components, and the rush loading of wind power is expected to speed up.

. As the raw material of the global leaf Bashar wood is mainly produced in Ecuador, since Ecuador was closed in March, the global Bashar wood supply has become tight

the epidemic situation in Ecuador has eased since June. More than 180 of the 221 administrative regions in the country have announced to reduce the level of epidemic prevention, reduce traffic restrictions, and gradually resume economic activities. In the second half of 2020, Ecuador is expected to have a large supply of Pasha wood

in addition, domestic leaf enterprises have increased their procurement of Bashar wood in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and other regions. It is expected that the tight supply of Bashar wood will be eased in the second half of 2020, which is conducive to the increase of domestic installed capacity

with the improvement of the epidemic situation in Italy and the release of domestic PVC production capacity, the domestic PVC supply will be sufficient in the second half of 2020. As PVC, the raw material of domestic leaves, is mainly supplied by diab, maricell and visa, which account for about 85% of the global supply, the main production capacity of diab and maricell is in Italy. The closure of Italy in March led to a shortage of PVC supply. In mid and late May, the epidemic in Italy eased, and some PVC enterprises ranked the first in the world. By the end of June, the production capacity of Italian PVC enterprises had basically been fully restored, In addition to the new production capacity of domestic PVC enterprise visa in June, it is expected that PVC supply will be sufficient in the second half of 2020

"full capacity consolidation" as a subsidy verification condition, the rush to install wind power is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2020. Recently, the National Renewable Energy Information Management Center issued the letter on requesting assistance in the verification of the additional subsidy funds for renewable energy electricity prices to power generation enterprises, requiring that the technical verification of 2020 new energy projects be carried out from June, and the verification results will serve as an important basis for whether the projects can receive subsidies. This verification repeatedly emphasizes whether the actual combined amount is consistent with the approved amount, which means that the land-based wind power projects scrambled to install in 2020 will face the risk of failing to pass the subsidy verification if they cannot be combined at full capacity

the 1216 renewable energy projects that have been verified are now the main technologies throughout the aerospace industry. There are 500 projects that have not passed the review. There are many reasons why they can continue to be used as full capacity and the time needs to be further confirmed and supplemented. For wind farm operators, it is necessary to speed up the installation progress of projects under construction to reach full capacity and lock in subsidies, It is expected that the rush to install domestic wind power will be accelerated in the second half of 2020. The new installed capacity of domestic wind power is expected to reach 23gw in the second half of 2020, a year-on-year increase of 27%. The new installed capacity of domestic wind power is expected to reach 30GW in 2020

there is a strong demand for cost reduction of overseas wind power, and the export substitution of domestic parts is expected to be large

in 2019, the global installed capacity of wind power was 60.35gw, with a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. According to GWEC's prediction, it is expected that the global installed capacity of new wind power will reach 76.1gw in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 26%. Due to the parity of onshore wind power in Europe, the small space for new installed capacity, the decline of PTC tax preference in the United States and the cancellation of wind power quota system in Australia, it is expected that the global installed capacity of new wind power will enter a downward channel after 2021, It is estimated that the global wind power installed capacity will reach 71.6/67.7/66.2gw in, a year-on-year increase of -6%/-5%/-2%. With the decline of local wind power preferences and subsidies, there is a strong demand for overseas wind turbines to reduce costs, creating opportunities for the export substitution of domestic components. Compared with overseas components, domestic wind turbine components such as blades, castings, forgings, towers, etc. have obvious cost performance advantages, and the export volume of wind turbine components is expected to grow rapidly in the future

the parity of onshore wind power is gradually approaching, and the large-scale wind turbine has become unstoppable

domestic onshore wind power will enter the era of parity in 2021. Large scale wind turbine is the most effective way to reduce the cost of kilowatt hour power. Wulanchabu wind power project is the largest single onshore wind farm in the world and the first large base wind power parity project in China. Five complete machine enterprises including Mingyang intelligent and Dongfang Electric won the bid. The average capacity of the winning machine is 4.16mw. The lowest power model is China offshore 3.4mw unit, and the highest power is Goldwind 5.6mw unit. According to the type of bidding model, the capacity above 4MW accounts for 69.2%, It is expected that units with annual unit capacity of more than 4MW will become the mainstream models of onshore wind power. In order to comply with the change of market demand, domestic complete machine manufacturers have released land-based fans with larger capacity, and the single machine capacity of new strength landing models is changing from 4.5mw to 5mw+, and the large-scale wind turbine has become unstoppable

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