The supply and demand side of the hottest plastic

2022-08-01
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Plastic Futures: the supply and demand side is still tight

at present, the 250000 ton full density unit of Daqing Petrochemical, the 60000 ton old full density unit of Lanzhou Petrochemical and the 800000 ton full density unit of Fujian United are all in shutdown status, of which the Fujian United full density unit is planned to start in December. Under the condition that Baotou Shenhua 300000 ton full density unit is not converted to production, assuming that Fujian United will start normal production in early December, the author estimates that there will be a surplus of about 30000 tons of LLDPE new supply and demand in December, which is also an important basis for short positions

however, from the current situation, there have been two changes. First, Baotou Shenhua 300000 ton full density plant plans to switch to HDPE production in early December, and it is expected that the conversion will take more than one month. In other words, Baotou Shenhua will not return to production line during the duration of 1401 contract. On the other hand, the Fujian United full density unit can only be ignited in early December, and the normal production is expected to be in late December. Combined with the annual capacity of Baotou Shenhua and Fujian combined plant, the LLDPE supply in December is estimated to be reduced by 335000 tons. This also means that as long as users consult a few of the above points, they will find that any regular company can meet the above requirements. For example, hips, ABS, as and PMMA, which cannot contain PE materials, the estimate of new supply and demand in December will be transformed from supply surplus to tight balance, and the estimate of inventory change will be adjusted from small accumulation to further decline

Before the delivery of the 1309 contract, the high price rise in September led to a large number of spot goods pouring into the futures delivery warehouse, and finally about 75000 tons of spot stock was put after the duration of the 1309 contract in this way. After the delivery of the 1309 contract, the futures warehouse receipt was quickly cancelled, and a large amount of futures inventory returned to the spot market. However, due to the strong demand for spot goods, the price has not been greatly impacted, the inventory returned to the spot market has been rapidly consumed, and the inventory of traders has decreased significantly. By the middle of November, PE social inventory had dropped to a level slightly lower than that at the end of 2012. At the same time, the sales revenue of the modified plastics business of the petrochemical warehouse company increased rapidly, and the inventory at the port also continued to decline, and the downstream inventory remained low. Considering the new supply and demand in November and December, PE spot inventory will further decline, thus supporting the spot price

from the middle of October to November 19, the plastics period now put the ceramic aluminum industry in an important position in the development of Huaibei industry. The price of goods fell into oscillation and consolidation, and the long and short competition was fierce. The focus of disagreement was the supply and demand situation in December. Short sellers are hoping for the start-up of Fujian United full density plant in December. However, it should be noted that the investigation of supply and demand needs to pay attention to both flow and stock, that is, comprehensively consider the new supply and demand and inventory. In the case of tight balance between supply and demand in December, and considering the fact that the absolute inventory is currently low, the spot price has no basis for a significant decline, and the 1401 contract basis is likely to be repaired by the mode of rising futures price. With the advance of time, the new supply and demand in December became clear gradually. With the low inventory and tight new supply and demand, the inventory will further decline, and the basis for some short positions will be seriously weakened. Looking forward to December, the spot price will remain strong under the support of supply and demand, but the high price will be resisted by the downstream. Therefore, there is limited room for the spot price to rise further

in terms of operation, the tight supply and demand side in December will support the spot price. There is a discount of about 200 yuan/ton between 1401 contract and spot price, and the spot price will still be connected in the form of rising spot price. It is recommended to continue to hold multiple 1401 contracts, and consider closing positions and leaving the market after the basis is completely repaired. The 1405 contract is discounted by more than 800 yuan/ton compared with the spot price, and the price difference structure reflects a more pessimistic expectation. With the gradual clarity of the supply and demand pattern in 2014, the high basis may have the need to repair, and the radical can intervene in multiple orders with light positions and pay attention to risk control

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