The supply of the hottest natural rubber is suffic

2022-08-06
  • Detail

The supply of natural rubber is sufficient, and the price of natural rubber breaks down again One week's market overview:

main market contracts

weekly opening price

weekly highest price

weekly lowest price

weekly closing price

rise and fall this week

weekly position

Shanghai Jiao 701 contract

18900

18950

17270

17365

-1795

71750

Japanese rubber 704 contract

215.5

218.9

197.4

199.4

-19.9

49860

natural rubber this week (17365, -505, -2.83%) The market fell. As the international crude oil price failed to continue the rebound momentum of last week at the beginning of the week, and the non-ferrous metal price fell in an all-round way under the guidance of the breaking trend of copper, the market's expectation that the price of industrial products might have turned around became stronger and stronger. The platform consolidation pattern of natural rubber supported by the rebound of crude oil last week was also broken, Under the double pressure of bad fundamentals and the conversion of technical interest to bad interest, the futures price finally effectively broke through the integer level of 18000 yuan/ton and launched a new round of medium-term decline

as the rainy season in Southeast Asia has basically come to an end since the beginning of October, favorable weather conditions have rapidly restored the supply of natural rubber in Thailand and Indonesia. The market supply is relatively sufficient and has exerted great pressure on local spot prices. Domestically, due to the short-term psychological impact of buyers' buying up but not buying down, the domestic spot market is also relatively cold and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. The spot price in Hainan fell slightly due to the drop in spot price in Southeast Asia. Stock on the exchange also rose sharply this week, reflecting that the domestic short-term pattern of oversupply has not been significantly improved

the futures market is very weak due to the weakness of the surrounding markets, which makes the bottom reading funds entering the market in the early stage lack confidence in making long bets. In particular, the recent Tianjiao market has a strong correlation with the trend of crude oil. This week, the international crude oil price continued to fall sharply. On Thursday, it fell through the shock box of nearly a month, and finally triggered the downward break of Tianjiao futures prices in Tokyo and Shanghai. As the futures price has hit a new low again, and the possibility of building a triple bottom technically no longer exists, the medium-term price is still expected to continue the downward trend of shock. From the change of position, no matter 7 Yield strength: when stretching, the total position of Shanghai market or Tokyo market has increased. Under the situation that Shanghai Jiao Rubber Co., Ltd. has broken its position in technology, the position has increased by nearly 40%. On the one hand, it reflects that the bulls are still active in the Shanghai market, and may still have hope that the domestic spot price will stabilize after China is about to enter the cut-off period. On the other hand, it also indicates that the market volatility in the future will be relatively large. If there is no qualitative change in the current fundamental pattern, especially if the crude oil price cannot return to $60 in the short term, the Shanghai Jiao futures price is expected to gradually slide to the 16500 area under sufficient supply pressure

in terms of operation, keep short thinking and sell short in case of rebound

II. One week's market highlights: Vietnam has moved from a regional economic model to a global economy and trade.

1. Vietnam's rubber export to China may continue to rise in price. 3: the thickness will rise evenly.

according to the news report of Vietnam's Ministry of trade quoted by Vietnam's economic times on November 10, Vietnam now exports about 1600 tons of rubber to China every day through Mangjie port, an increase of nearly 400 tons per day over the beginning of last month, The price per ton is 1 470000 yuan, an increase of about 500 yuan per ton

it is reported that in order to meet the needs of domestic rubber wheel production, China will increase the import of natural rubber, and the price of Vietnam's rubber exports to China is likely to continue to increase significantly

it is reported that China has now become the largest rubber export market in Vietnam, accounting for more than 60% of Vietnam's total rubber exports. It is estimated that Vietnam's rubber exports to China this year will be about 600million US dollars

2. Indonesia's rubber production in December is expected to decline by 50000 tons

according to the news in Jakarta on November 13, a senior industry representative said on Monday that Indonesia's raw rubber production in December may decline by 50000 tons to 120000 tons

asril sutan Amir, vice president of the Indonesian Rubber Producers Association, said that due to the influence of the high rainfall out of season, Indonesia's natural rubber production in December is expected to decline

Amir said that Indonesia's raw rubber production in 2007 depended on factors such as the length of dry season and rainy season. He estimated that the output of raw rubber in Indonesia in 2007 would be million tons

the unusually hot weather in western Indonesia and the overwintering period of some plantations led to a 30% - 40% decline in the output of natural rubber in August and September compared with the monthly average level of this year

in September, the Indonesian Rubber Manufacturers Association estimated that the rubber production in Indonesia in 2006 would only increase by about 3.5% compared with last year due to adverse weather, which was 2.27 million tons last year. The association's earlier estimate was a 7% increase

3. The sharp increase in China's rubber import demand has prompted Vietnam's rubber to continue to rise

China is the largest export market of Vietnam's rubber, and 60% of Vietnam's rubber exports are exported to China. Since the middle of October, China's demand for rubber imports has increased significantly. At present, the daily import of natural rubber from Vietnam through normal trade and small trade has reached 1600 tons, and the trading price of rubber has increased to RMB yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton over the beginning of October. It is estimated that Vietnam's rubber export price to China will continue to rise from now until the end of the year

4. Malaysia's exports of natural rubber in September fell by 1.9% year-on-year.

the Malaysian Bureau of Statistics announced on Wednesday that the country's exports of natural rubber in September were 98125 tons, down 1.9% year-on-year. In September, the output of natural rubber in the country was 113209 tons. By the end of September, the inventory of natural rubber in the country was 200274 tons, an increase of 12.9% year-on-year, while the consumption in the month was 31199 tons, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year. In September, the average price of Malaysian tire grade 20 standard rubber was 6.64 ringgit/kg, up 13.2% year on year

5. Application for ex ante quality inspection of Japanese rubber for delivery in November

Tokyo rubber futures market

southland rubber 278 hands (1390 tons)

rubber simple thermal aging Sunshine imitation and ordinary interior light aging test conditions are that R-Net 200 hands (1000 tons)

Toyota Tsusho 64 hands (320 tons)

Marubeni 214 hands (1070 tons for re inspection)

756 hands in total (3780 tons)

Osaka rubber futures market

southland rubber 219 hands (1095 tons)

Toyota Tsusho 20 hands (100 tons)

239 hands in total (1195 tons)

※ where, Rubber net and Southland rubber are imported rubber

III Data and charts area

Malaysia rubber spot price trend chart (source: Northern futures)

Hainan Tianjiao spot price trend chart (source: Northern futures)

ratio trend chart of Shanghai Rubber and Singapore rubber (source: Northern futures)

ratio trend chart of Shanghai Rubber and Japan rubber (source: Northern futures)

inventory trend chart of Shanghai Futures Exchange (source: Northern futures)

daily trend chart of Shanghai Jiao stock index (source: Northern futures)

note: the reprinted contents are indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with their views or confirm the authenticity of their contents

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI