The hottest policy supports solar energy bottoming

2022-09-19
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Policy support for solar energy bottomed out and photovoltaic power generation became the focus.

last year was a cold winter for solar related industries. The price of polysilicon plummeted by 80% to $15 per kilogram. In the first half of this year, it faced adverse news such as EU post-dumping sanctions, and many enterprises were very difficult to operate. In the second half of the year, various negative factors have been solved one after another, the polysilicon price has rebounded, and with the introduction of a number of measures to develop the photovoltaic industry by the central government, photovoltaic stocks are expected to get rid of overcast days and see the sun again after a good turn. In particular, downstream businesses that have had less impact in the past have better prospects

imports from the United States and South Korea are under pressure, and the price of polysilicon in China has bottomed out and rebounded.

solar energy enterprises are generally divided into upper, middle and lower reaches. The upstream business mainly produces chips, wafers and other materials, while the midstream business mainly produces solar modules and batteries. Both of them faced adversity in the past. However, the downstream businesses such as photovoltaic power generation and solar cell curtain wall construction were outstanding when the solar energy industry was under pressure last year

in the past, the global photovoltaic capacity was excessive, and the price of polysilicon fell from $80 per kilogram in 2010 to the lowest $15 per kilogram last year. For enterprises producing polysilicon, such as poly GCL, the average selling price of polysilicon and chips fell from $23.2 per kilogram and $2.5:1 and $3:1 per watt, respectively, to $17 and $0.2, resulting in a sharp increase in photovoltaic business losses by 5.4 times to $1.429 billion by the end of June

however, since then, the Ministry of Commerce of China has conducted a double anti subsidy (anti-dumping) investigation on solar polysilicon imported from the United States and South Korea, which has led the domestic polysilicon price to bottom up. At present, it has reached about $18 per kilogram, and industry insiders estimate that the price is expected to return to $30 next year

the EU anti-dumping has come to an end, waiting for the final decision in December.

at present, the solar cells commonly produced in the market are mainly silicon solar cells and compound thin film solar cells such as copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS). Their ability to convert light energy into electricity, that is, the conversion rate is also different. Generally, the conversion rate of single crystal silicon is the highest, but the cost is also the most expensive, followed by polycrystalline silicon, and finally thin film. Although the conversion rate of thin-film battery is low, the cost is also low

since last year, the photovoltaic industry has faced the EU seeking to impose anti-dumping duties of up to 47.6% on photovoltaic modules, crystalline silicon (such as polysilicon) and batteries produced in China. The European Union took the lead in imposing a provisional post-dumping duty of 11.8% in June this year. Subsequently, China and the EU reached a consensus in August to reach a price commitment agreement on photovoltaic products, and also set an annual export quota to strengthen the dynamic inspection of announced enterprises to the relevant products in Europe until the end of 2015. Chinese photovoltaic enterprises will be able to maintain a 60% share of the European market

however, you should note that the EU specific users need to customize the anti-dumping investigation of the photovoltaic industry in China according to their own use conditions. By December, the EU will announce the final determination of the investigation. For the time being, there is a strong voice against the imposition of punitive tariffs on China. If the final determination does not implement double anti, I believe the relevant news will also boost the share price of relevant shares

a number of policies support the expansion of photovoltaic power generation in the second half of the year

in addition, due to the limited photovoltaic products, solar thin-film modules are not limited, and enterprises producing thin-film solar cells may have advantages in the Sino European dispute. In the past, excessive polysilicon production capacity, price pressure, and the storm of EU sanctions have had little impact on the downstream business of the industry. For example, industrial solar and hanergy solar, which have more downstream business, still recorded an increase in overall profits last year and the first half of this year, outperforming companies with more upstream business of camdank and poly GCL

on the whole, the photovoltaic industry has begun to reverse its weakness since the second half of the year. First, the development prospect has long been in the global mass production of polyurethane products. As a renewable energy, photovoltaic power generation has a great demand in the world. Some institutions expect that after the installed capacity of the global photovoltaic industry exceeded 35 gigawatts (GW) in 2013, it will reach 61gw by 2017, that is, there will be 242gw demand from 2013 to 2017. The Japanese government has also increased relevant subsidies since last year. In the first half of the year, photovoltaic installation reached a record high of 1.2gw. Later, the mainland government set a target of an average annual increase of 10GW of photovoltaic power generation installed capacity from 2013 to 2015, and 5 to 35gw by 2015, which is good news for enterprises in the whole industrial chain

at the same time, the mainland has also set a number of goals to develop renewable energy, including photovoltaic, to solve the pollution problem. It includes encouraging the integration of photovoltaic buildings. By the end of 2015, 20% of the new buildings in the city need to meet the green standard, driving the demand for photovoltaic curtain walls. The central government also proposed substantive policies to support the development of the industry, including the mainland announced in July that it would provide electricity price subsidies to photovoltaic power generation enterprises and published photovoltaic power generation. From October 1, the value-added tax of solar power module manufacturers would also be reduced by half, indirectly increasing the return rate of power stations by about 1-2 percentage points. These policies are particularly beneficial to downstream power generation business and solar curtain wall construction business

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